Profile of the Day: Virginia Tech
I wasn’t sure I would ever need to write this profile. Just the other day, I wrote a profile on the major ACC bubble teams and left out Virginia Tech because, well, the Hokies didn’t have a very interesting profile or a very plausible path to an at-large bid frankly speaking. They were in people’s Next 4 Out sections at best (and even in lower in some mock brackets), were going to need to beat a tough Clemson team and upset Notre Dame just to be in the discussion. Now, it’s two days later and Virginia Tech (21-12, 11-9 ACC) is playing in the ACC Semifinals and the picture has changed considerably, both because of them and results elsewhere along the bubble.
Virginia Tech’s Metrics
NET: 33
KenPom: 27
BPI: 20
Sagarin: 36
KPI: 62
SOR: 57
WAB: 61
Quad 1: 1-6
Quad 2: 6-4
Quad 3: 7-2
Quad 4: 7-0
Record vs. “the field”: 3-8
On the surface, this seems like a no-brainer résumé. They have the NET and they have the predictive metrics (another way of saying they pass the “eye test”). However, just three wins against the field (Miami and Notre Dame twice) and only one Quad 1 win have held back the Hokies all season; the irony is that by beating Notre Dame, the Fighting Irish’s NET ranking fell out of the top 50 and cost Virginia Tech another Quad 1 win. Two Quad 3 losses also contribute to a still unimpressive SOR, KPI and WAB rankings.
Of course, it’s definitely not a no-brainer. Virginia Tech wasn’t even in the picture at the start of the ACC Tournament. The Hokies almost didn’t even beat Clemson, winning at the buzzer in overtime. That win inched them up a little into the Next 4 Out, but the thought was surely they fall short against Notre Dame after playing an extra game (and extra five minutes too). Instead, they took down Notre Dame as well, adding another good win and potentially winning any debate with the Fighting Irish in the committee’s mind come Selection Sunday. The only issue is other bubble teams got massive wins on the same day, so while seemingly everything changed, almost nothing changed; Virginia Tech went from being in eight out of 129 brackets on the Bracket Matrix to 16 out of 121. Teams held serve and we are basically back where we started yesterday, but don’t get it twisted. Things are about to get very fun and very interesting in bubble land.
With the ACC being so weak, Virginia Tech might have entered the discussion too little, too late, but they are making one impressive charge ahead of the semifinal match against North Carolina, a certain Quad 1 opportunity.
How they make it:
Aside from the obvious (winning the ACC Tournament), beating North Carolina to reach the final likely does it. With some bubble teams like Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Xavier sitting at home, the Hokies’ profile would almost assuredly pass these teams. Other bubble teams, like Indiana, Rutgers, Texas A&M and Dayton, losing sooner rather than later would be a huge help as well.
How they miss it:
While Virginia Tech pulled off a huge win against Notre Dame to join the conversation, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Indiana got arguably greater wins on the same day, which Virginia Tech didn’t move up as much as one might think. A loss to North Carolina freezes their profile in place while those other teams have a chance to keep winning and either extend their edge on the Hokies or pass them entirely. Also, if the committee doesn’t care about VT’s calling cards, NET and KenPom rankings, very much, then Virginia Tech will be in trouble.
NOTE: After publication, Indiana (vs. Illinois) and Texas A&M (vs. Auburn) both beat #1 seeds in their conference tournament, significantly boosting those profiles. The math is a bit tougher for the Hokies now and need a win versus North Carolina even more than they did when they woke up today.
… but wait there’s more! With the discussion on Virginia Tech, I figured I would check back in on the ACC Bubblers profile I wrote a couple days ago and reassess their chances.
Wake Forest
What I said:
“Avoiding another bad loss against 13th seeded Boston College won’t secure a spot in the field but it might earn the Demon Deacons enough cushion to withstand bid thieves and the like over the final few days… Simply put, a loss to Boston College would be devastating. Wake Forest’s good metrics would take a considerable hit and they’d miss a chance to add any good wins while in Brooklyn. That, combined with a couple bid thieves, would make fans in Winston-Salem hold their breath until Sunday evening.”
What happened:
What could have been a chance to clinch their bid, ended in disaster. The extra Quad 3 loss to Boston College did wreck their previously clean metrics, dropping the Demon Deacons’ NET and SOR close to 10 spots each. They can no longer help themselves and are at the mercy of other bubble teams and bid thieves. Their ugly non-conference strength of schedule number will be heavily talked about in the coming days and might be Wake Forest’s downfall. The folks in Winston-Salem are rightfully worried and I do not like their chances with recent runs from Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Indiana and even ACC foe Virginia Tech.
Notre Dame
What I said:
“A win over Virginia Tech may not look overly impressive, but it would be another top-50 win and a third Quad 1 win… The worst case scenario is Clemson finds a way to upset Virginia Tech and then also take down the Fighting Irish in the quarterfinals. Much like the rest of the ACC bubble teams, Notre Dame would be nervously watching for bid thieves if they go one-and-done in Brooklyn and could find themselves in historically bad company.”
What happened:
While the “worst case scenario” of Clemson beating Notre Dame didn’t come to fruition, a loss to Virginia Tech was worse than perhaps I led on initially. Other bubble teams have gotten great wins, and again a weak ACC will hold back the Fighting Irish. Head-to-head isn’t an official barometer for seeding in the NCAA selection committee’s eyes, but a loss to Viriginia Tech might at very least get them boxed out by the Hokies. In my opinion, Notre Dame is about a coin-flip in terms of odds to get in the field.
Miami
What I said:
“With a double-bye directly into the ACC Quarterfinals, Miami will likely play Wake Forest. While no loss is good, a top 50 team like the Demon Deacons would do little harm to Miami’s chances, especially with the Hurricanes on the right side of things with a bit of cushion right now. Of course, a victory over Wake Forest erases all doubts completely too.”
What happened:
Miami got the win in the quarterfinals, but it was not against Wake Forest as I stated was likely; it was against bad-loss-waiting-to-happen Boston College. And boy did a bad loss almost happen. The Eagles nearly pulled off another upset and severely damaged Miami’s profile, but the Hurricanes won at the buzzer in overtime (a la Virginia Tech) and are all doubts are now erased with Miami safely ensconsced in the field, albeit as a double digit seed. Losing to Duke in the semifinals tonight won’t take them out of the field and it would take extreme chaos to see Miami get passed by enough teams to squeeze them out of the field. Beating Duke would get Miami into the single digit seed range.