Profile of the Day: ACC Bubblers
With more profiles I want to examine than days left until Selection Sunday, I’m doing something a little bit different to clear through some other teams I want to discuss. The ACC Tournament gets into full swing today (the Opening Round didn’t feature any bubble action, so this is the real start in my eyes), and I’m going to look at the three biggest bubble teams from the conference (Miami, Wake Forest, Notre Dame) in order from most safe to least safe.
Wake Forest
The story for Wake Forest is a very similar one to what North Carolina was facing prior to their momentous upset of Duke: only one Quad 1 win at Virginia Tech (non-tournament team at the moment) and a bad loss (at Louisville). Just like the Tar Heels, the Demon Deacons have good metrics; their NET, SOR, KenPom, BPI and Sagarin are all in the top 42. The only metric that have Wake Forest outside the top 42 is KPI (56). The reasons why there is still some doubt about their tournament chances are the lack of big wins, the blemish in Quad 3/4 and an awful non-conference schedule. Wake Forest’s out of conference strenght of schedule is an abysmal 338 (out of 358). The Demon Deacons played eight Quad 4 games, Quad 1 LSU (a 14-point loss), the contractually-obligated ACC/Big 10 Challenge game game against Quad 3 Northwestern and a “neutral court” game against Quad 3 Charlotte.
Wake Forest is the highest 10 seed on my board entering the day, 12 spots away from missing the field. Bracketmatrix.com is a little less confident, giving the Demon Deacons an average 10.61 seed (appearing in 135 of 141 brackets) and one of the Last 4 Byes.
How they make it:
Avoiding another bad loss against 13th seeded Boston College won’t secure a spot in the field but it might earn the Demon Deacons enough cushion to withstand bid thieves and the like over the final few days. For good measure, beating Miami in the Quarterfinals will get the job done.
How they miss it:
First let me say that Wake may be safe no matter what, but with a few days to go, there is enough uncertainty to envision a path towards the NIT rather than the NCAA Tournament. Simply put, a loss to Boston College would be devastating. Wake Forest’s good metrics would take a considerable hit and they’d miss a chance to add any good wins while in Brooklyn. That, combined with a couple bid thieves, would make fans in Winston-Salem hold their breath until Sunday evening.
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish enter the ACC Tournament as the #2 seed. The fact that we’re even discussing the #2 seed being on the bubble underscores how weak the ACC is this year. 1976 was the last time the #2 seed in the ACC Tournament failed to make the NCAA bracket, but that was when only 32 teams made the field, squeezing out nationally-ranked Maryland that season.
Notre Dame’s metrics are very bubbly (NET of 50 with KenPom, BPI and KPI in the same ballpark), but they are 2-6 in Quad 1, including a win over Kentucky which is pulling a lot of weight on this résumé and contributing to the SOR ranking of 35. The conventional wisdom currently sees Notre Dame as one the Last 4 Byes, but things can change quickly.
How they make it:
A win over Virginia Tech may not look overly impressive, but it would be another top-50 win and a third Quad 1 win. Even just Virginia Tech beating Clemson to reach the quarterfinals would be appreciated as it greatly reduces the risk of taking a bad loss in the ACC Tournament. Bubble teams that are on the right side of the bubble simply need one solid win this time of year to feel good about themselves.
How they miss it:
The worst case scenario is Clemson finds a way to upset Virginia Tech and then also take down the Fighting Irish in the quarterfinals. Much like the rest of the ACC bubble teams, Notre Dame would be nervously watching for bid thieves if they go one-and-done in Brooklyn and could find themselves in historically bad company.
Miami (FL)
Miami has the worst metrics of the three teams we looked at here today, coming in with a subpar NET ranking of 59 and below average predictive metrics. However, their résumé-based metrics are exceptional, with a SOR of 34 and a KPI of 38, due to three big road wins in conference play: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and the big kahuna Duke. It also helps to have a neutral court Quad 1 win over North Texas.
Yes, the Hurricanes have dropped three Quad 3 home games, all in close defeats, to UCF, Florida State and Virginia. Notably, Virginia is just a couple NET spots away from being a Quad 2 game, and the committee may view the Florida State loss more favorably because the Seminoles were at mostly full strength in January and had not seen their NET ranking collapse yet. Either way, the good wins seem to outweigh the tough losses at this point, with barttorvik.com giving Miami a 63% chance to earn an at-large bid. I have the Hurricanes as the sixth-to-last team in the field, and the bracketmatrix.com average slots them in a similar position.
How they make it:
With a double-bye directly into the ACC Quarterfinals, Miami will likely play Wake Forest. While no loss is good, a top 50 team like the Demon Deacons would do little harm to Miami’s chances, especially with the Hurricanes on the right side of things with a bit of cushion right now. Of course, a victory over Wake Forest erases all doubts completely too.
How they miss it:
I sound like a broken record, but lots of bid thieves and/or crazy upsets and deep runs in their respective conference tournaments from lower bubble teams like Indiana, Xavier, or Oklahoma. A compressed bubble and a one-and-done exit from the ACC Tournament could doom Miami with a low-ish NET ranking in a weak ACC. That statement is especially true if Boston College finds a way into the quarterfinals and shocks Miami.
I hope you enjoyed this slightly different take on Profile of the Day. Perhaps we will do this again with some other conferences that have a cluster of teams near the cutline (Big East, Atlantic 10, American).