NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Best Bets
We are in the green! This time around, the “best” bets didn’t do so hot (although Iowa State moneyline once again saved us), but the “other” bets popped off, going 5-0-2 (argh Providence 1H under and St. Peter’s total under). That hot streak now makes us profitable through the entire tourney, erasing my silly bets on those 8/9 first round games. And this isn’t even tracking a couple extra investments I made when Iowa State moved to +4.5 (and +180 ML) and when Creighton moved to +13 (and +8 in the first half) 💪 Let’s keep up the hot streak in the Sweet 16
Round of 32 Best Bets: 5-5 (+0.1 units)
Total Best Bets: 9-10 (-0.2 units)
All Round of 32 bets: 10-5-2 (+4.68 units)
All bets: 15-17-3 (+0.08 units)
Thursday (all times EDT)
9:59 p.m.
#5 Houston ML (+105) vs. #1 Arizona: Houston was my sleeper pick to make the Final Four before the tournament began, so partially this is me sticking with my guys. But also from a matchup perspective, the Cougars should probably be the favored team. Arizona struggled to rebound against TCU and was fortunate to even make it here to the Sweet 16. Houston prides itself on its defense and its prowess on the offensive glass. Just like TCU, Houston ranked second in the country in offensive rebounding rate entering the tournament and the fifth-seeded Cougars are simply a better team than the ninth-seeded Horned Frogs were. I think Houston imposes its style of play over Arizona and wins outright.
Friday
7:29 p.m.
#1 Kansas -7.5 (-105) vs. #4 Providence: Providence admittedly is a bit lucky to get here. They were the trendy pick to get upset in the first round (but what does the public know?) and then got fortunate to face 12 seed Richmond in the Round of 32, a historical shoe-in for advancement. Things step way up in difficulty, however, against top seed Kansas. At the start of the tournament, this region seemed poised for the Jayhawks’ taking. Now, with the #2 and #3 seeds out of the region, this should be Kansas’s last big obstacle on the way to the Final Four. I don’t see how Providence’s defense slows down the fifth most efficient offense in the country. The nice run for the Friars comes to an end in what I think may be a big blowout.
9:59 p.m.
#11 Iowa State +2.5 (-110) and +125 ML vs. #10 Miami: This is purely about sticking with my guys. I picked Iowa State to reach the Elite 8 before the tournament began, so I’ll ride with them again. Admitedly, I thought they would be facing Auburn here, but I guess a battle with another double-digit seed is a touch easier. Miami can make shots, and they could follow a similar script to the one they used to take down Auburn, but Iowa State’s gutsy defense will prevent the Hurricanes from having too many second chances and the Cyclones find a way once again to advance.
Other Bets
#1 Gonzaga -9.5 (-110) and -5 1H (-115) vs. #4 Arkansas: Gonzaga has been slow out of the gate against both Georgia State and Memphis, but had enough of a talent gap to overcome those lower seeds. Arkansas could be a different story, as they might be close enough in talent to Gonzaga that another slow start could doom the Bulldogs. However, I think with nearly a week of gameplaning, Mark Few will have hammered home the need to start fast in this game. Unless, Arkansas’s guards go nuclear, Gonzaga should win easily with a major size disparity. In case the back door is open late, I will also play the smaller first half number because Gonzaga knows they have to start quicker than they did in the first two rounds.
#11 Michigan +5 (-110) vs. #2 Villanova: Every year, there is a sleeper to make an Elite 8 or Final Four. Every year, it also seems that there is a “sleeping giant,” or a powerhouse program that slept-walked through the regular season, that reawakens during the tournament and finally lives up to potential. Why can’t Michigan be that team? They have a true game-changer with Hunter Dickinson banging around in the low post and the Wolverines have seemingly found their stride. North Carolina also fits the “sleeping giant” profile, but that line is a bit too close for my liking so I’ll take the couple extra points with Michigan
Houston-Arizona u146.5 (-110) and u68.5 1H (-110): As I previously stated, I think Houston establishes the game in their style, leading to a more defensive and slowed down game. This game probably finishes closer to the 130s for a total than the mid-140s, so I like the cushion this provides.
#15 St. Peter’s +12.5 (-110) vs. #3 Purdue: The Peacocks are the darlings of the tournament and I’m riding them against Purdue. I’ve tailed their defense and played the under through much of the last month, dating back to their MAAC Tournament Final against Monmouth, but this time I’ll take the spread (the total is 133.5 and might be worth a look by the way). A 15 seed in the Sweet 16 is still fairly uncharted territory, but in the two prior instances (very small sample size, I know), the 15 seed hung around. In 2013, Florida Gulf Coast lost by 12 and just last season, Oral Roberts fell to Arkansas by a measly 2 points. In case you’re bad at math, that means +12.5 would have covered in both games. Setting aside sample size, I’m still willing to take St. Peter’s mostly because how much am I willing to trust Purdue? They are a team that has been known for disappointing NCAA Tournament exits over the past decade. They will probably win due to the massive size of Zach Edey, but I’m willing to bet Boilermaker fans will be nervously watching the final few minutes of this one; I’ll be right there with them, sweating it out until the final horn sounds.
Iowa State-Miami u133 (-110) and u62.5 1H (-115): Again, I think Iowa State will make this a rock fight, which is the only type of game they are comfortable with. Miami is due for a bit of shooting regression and will turn the ball over enough in a game with very few possessions that a total of 133 is way too high.