NCAA Tournament Round of 32 Best Bets
We didn’t do all that well in the Round of 64, but that’s life in the NCAA Tournament. Not every day will be amazing, but in the long haul, things will work out if you just believe. Iowa State winning outright mostly salvaged our Best Bets and Vermont flirted with a win that would have given us profit. As for the other bets… definitely not good. Notre Dame won outright (I did end up betting +160 ML too which was nice), but Michigan State took a brutal push at -1 (Davidson closed as a favorite at many books too, making this all the more painful) and all the others were pretty big fails. Like I said, don’t bet the 8/9 games like I did 🤷🏻♂️; they are pure toss-ups for a reason.
With that being said, there are still good bets to be found in the 16 games we have this weekend. Let’s ride!
Best Bets: 4-5 (-0.3 units)
All Bets: 5-12-1 (-4.6 units)
Saturday (all times EDT)
5:15 p.m.
#3 Tennessee -6 (-115) vs. #11 Michigan: Tennessee is a very strong 3 seed, ranking in the top 10 of KenPom. The 3 seeds that lose in the Round of 32 are those outside the top 20. I feel good about the Volunteers and I believe they could make a run to the Final Four. Michigan had their moment, but this tourney belongs to Tennessee.
6:10 p.m.
#4 Providence -3 (-110) vs. #12 Richmond: I picked against the Friars, but history is clear. 12/13 seeds do not beat a 4/5 seed in the Round of 32. They are 3-17 since 2008 (including 1-2 last year), and usually they are blowouts. Providence loves their close games (and betting against Jacob Gilyard is asking for trouble), but even if this one is close, 3 is a pretty short number to be laying.
8:40 p.m.
#4 Arkansas -6.5 (-110) vs. #12 New Mexico State: Read above. It’s the same story, right down to the “shouldn’t bet against Teddy Allen” part, but history is guiding me on this one.
9:40 p.m.
#9 Memphis +10 (-110) vs. #1 Gonzaga: Power Conference teams in the top 20 overall (as the Tigers are on barttorvik.com), are 7-7 against top two seeds since 2008. We can argue all day about whether the AAC is a “power conference,” but regardless I think Memphis has the talent of a power conference team. I’m not going to be a madman and say they win this game, but I’ll gladly take the 10 points. Gonzaga started slow out of the gate against Georgia State and another slow start could keep this one close to the end.
Sunday
2:40 p.m.
#7 Ohio State +5.5 (-110) and +180 ML vs. #2 Villanova: Beware of top two seeds with an adjusted defense outside the top 20 (Villanova is at 33rd). Those teams are 16-10 in the Round of 32 since 2008, whereas top two seeds with an adjusted defense inside the top 20 are 52-8. That’s a pretty clear edge, even if Ohio State doesn’t quite fall into the top 20 overall stat that I mentioned about Memphis earlier.
5:15 p.m.
#7 Michigan State +6.5 (-110) vs. #2 Duke: It’s another top two seed with a bad defense. Duke is even worse than Villanova, coming in at 40th on defense. That’s a solid ranking, but not for a top two seed looking to go far in this tournament. This game will be much tighter than Duke’s game against Cal State Fullerton, and if game pressure starts to mount (with Coach K’s retirement looming), we might see this team crumble defensively as they did the final couple weeks of the regular season.
6:10 p.m.
#11 Iowa State +3.5 (-110) and +150 ML vs. #3 Wisconsin: As I mentioned for the Michigan-Tennessee game, the 3 seeds that find themselves on the wrong side of a second round upset are those outside the 20 in adjusted efficiency margin. Wisconsin happens to be ranked in the 30s (and only a couple spots in front of Iowa State on KenPom). The math says this game should be a tossup, which the line does indicate to some degree, but I like Iowa State’s chances. Plus, history says at least one double-digit seed will advance to the Sweet Sixteen and Iowa State has the best path (although St. Peter’s is in a bit of uncharted territory).
9:40 p.m.
#9 TCU +9.5 (-110) vs. #1 Arizona: The Wildcats are a borderline outside-the-top-20 defensive unit, which raises the alarms for me. TCU might not be the best opponent to take advantage, but at 9.5 points I’ll take a chance.
Other Bets
#9 Creighton +11.5 (-105) and +6.5 1H (-105) vs. #1 Kansas: Yes, I know I picked against Creighton in the last round. Yes, they turn the ball over too much and yes, they just lost their second-leading scorer for the rest of the tournament. But this bet comes down to two things: one, top two seeds with an adjusted defense outside the top 20 are 16-10 in the second round since 2008 against power conference opponents (Kansas is barely top 20 on KenPom), and two, 11.5 is a lot of points. Mainly it’s the points, but I think this Creighton team has overcome adversity well already. That 16-10 record sounds decent for the #1 seed, but top two seeds with an adjusted defense inside the top 20 are 52-8 in the Round of 32. Yes, this could be the 17th win and the somewhat middling win percentage doesn’t even ensure this is a close loss, but I’ll take the risk with more than 10 points.
Providence-Richmond u134.5 (-115) and u63 1H (-110): Providence prefers a defensive game and just shut down one of the best offenses in the country in South Dakota State. Richmond did the same to a very dangerous Iowa squad, plus Jacob Gilyard and the Spiders love to cause havoc and force turnovers which will muck up this game. I expected a total in the 120s in all honesty.
Murray State-St. Peter’s u130 (-110) and u61 1H (-110): Over/Unders really bit me in the Round of 64, but I’m going back to St. Peter’s unders in attempt to cash it the way I cashed their MAAC Championship under against Monmouth. The point is that St. Peter’s likely won’t shoot the way they did against Kentucky again (right? Surely not…). The emotional win against blue blood Kentucky drained the Peacocks and Murray State won’t be dropping 80+ points.
Arizona-TCU o143 (-110): The way Arizona moves the ball on offense to get good looks is breathtaking. The Wildcats make it look easy and constantly are hitting 75+ points, thanks in part to the lightning-fast tempo they play at. More posessions means more opportunites for points.