March 13th Men's NCAA + NIT Seed List (morning)
Happy Selection Sunday everyone! We’ve finally made it to the big day. I will get a full bracket up by the selection show as well as an updated, final seed list. But entering today’s five games, here is where things stand:
Tennessee is locked into a two seed regardless of the SEC Championship Game vs. Texas A&M today. On the other hand, the Aggies are safely in the field no matter what now in the model’s eyes
Purdue winning the Big Ten Championship might be enough to lift them over Villanova for the final two seed. An Iowa win would bring them into the top 16 and demote Arkansas
Houston sits on the 3 line, but that is only with an AAC title win today against Memphis. UCLA sits ready to take that spot in case of a loss
Murray State has sat idle long enough that other teams have passed them and the Racers fall to a 6 seed. Still a hell of an accomplishment, but Connecticut takes the last 5 seed now
Boise State’s MWC Championship win boosts the Broncos to the 7 line, dropping the team they beat, San Diego State, in the process
Davidson reaching the Atlantic 10 Final today has moved them to an 8 seed, but they must win to stay there. Otherwise, either Seton Hall or Ohio State will move back up
Some of San Francisco’s metrics improved overnight, while some of Iowa State’s dropped, so I have flipped the two teams to a 9 and 10 seed respectively. The Cyclones still shouldn’t worry but they are a stone’s throw from playing in Dayton now
Virginia Tech’s miraculous run to the ACC title lifts this team from First 4 Out to a 10 seed as the automatic qualifier. And to think the Hokies were a buzzer beater against Clemson away from waiting to hear their NIT opponent instead. Whose spot they took remains to be seen…
Tough losses for SMU and Creighton drop both to an 11 seed and one of the Last 4 Byes. I remain confident both are in the field
With Virginia Tech taking a bid, Notre Dame (who lost to the Hokies in the ACC Quarterfinals) falls into the Last 4 In… and the last two spots go to Marquette and Oklahoma. As much as it pains me (because they had a great run), Indiana falls out of the field. Their metrics fell slightly too much after the loss to Iowa. Officially, Wake Forest is the first team out, but the Hoosiers and Demon Deacons are in a near-tie.
Richmond is the only bid thief candidate today. If they win, Oklahoma is the victim of a stolen bid
UAB’s C-USA championship was just enough to pass Chattanooga for the last 12 seed
Seed List
Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Villanova
Purdue, Texas Tech, Houston, Duke
UCLA, Wisconsin, Illinois, Arkansas
Iowa, Providence, St. Mary’s, Connecticut
Murray State, Texas, Colorado State, North Carolina
Southern California, LSU, Michigan State, Boise State
Alabama, San Diego State, Davidson, TCU
Ohio State, Seton Hall, San Francisco, Loyola Chicago
Memphis, Iowa State, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech
SMU, Creighton, Michigan, Wyoming
Notre Dame*, Miami FL*, Marquette*, Oklahoma*, South Dakota State, UAB
Chattanooga, Vermont, New Mexico State, Princeton
Longwood, Montana State, Akron, Norfolk State
Saint Peter’s, Delaware, Jacksonville State, Georgia State
Colgate, Cal St. Fullerton, Bryant, Texas Southern, Wright State, Texas A&M Corpus Christi
*Last 4 In
NIT Seed List
Wake Forest, Indiana, North Texas, VCU
BYU, Xavier, Florida, Colorado
Rutgers, Belmont, Dayton, St. Bonaventure
Saint Louis, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Virginia
Iona, Toledo, Santa Clara, Vanderbilt
Richmond, Drake, Towson, Oregon
Missouri State, St. John’s, Northern Iowa, Texas State
Long Beach State, Cleveland State, Nicholls State, Alcorn State
First 4 Out: UCF, Florida State, Louisiana Tech, Washington State
The math: There is but one regular season champion with zero NCAA at-large hopes left playing and that is Princeton. Should the Tigers lose to Yale in the Ivy League Championship, Princeton falls into the NIT and would bump out St. John’s. A failed NCAA bid steal by Richmond will still keep them in the NIT, but it could be close if Princeton does lose. Realistically, only Richmond, Drake, Oregon, Missouri State and St. John’s should feel very worried about their NIT odds.
And there we have it. Thanks everyone for reading throughout these couple of weeks, it has been a blast! But I’m not going anywhere quite yet. Keep an eye on your inboxes during Tournament Week as I have more content planned