March 12th Men's NCAA + NIT Seed List
Friday was a big day for movement as bubble teams continue to make deep runs in their conference tournaments. One final huge day is ahead of us as 15 more bids get decided (with Vermont vs UMBC starting in just a couple minutes). We are truly in the home stretch with ~30 hours to go until the bracket is revealed. Here’s the recap
It’s pretty much a tie for the 2nd and 3rd overall seeds between Arizona and Kansas. I’ll have to take a very close look if both win their conference tournaments today
Baylor still in position to be passed for the final #1 seed if Kentucky wins the SEC tomorrow
Villanova winning the Big East would lock in a 2 seed for the Wildcats, boxing out potential Big Ten and ACC Champs Purdue and Duke respectively
Those two can still get a 2 seed, but it likely requires a Tennessee loss today rather than tomorrow
Providence’s ability to win close games has built a profile that many see as fraudulent. Well they finally lost and in blowout fashion to Creighton, dropping the Friars to the 5 line
Iowa’s continued run through the Big Ten Tournament has lifted them up to a 5 seed
Texas is still feeling residual effects from their Big 12 Quarterfinal loss to TCU and slides to a 6 seed
Davidson avoided a bad loss yesterday to possible bid thief Fordham, pushing them just up to a 9 seed. I do not see a way the Wildcats miss the tournament now
Creighton got arguably the best win of the day, beating top seed Providence to advance to the Big East Final versus Villanova and rise from my Last 4 In to the safety of a 10 seed. A loss to the Wildcats would not cost the Bluejays a spot in the field
I say Creighton had arguably the best win because Indiana had a doozy of a win as well. The Hoosiers second win in the Big Ten Tournament, this time knocking off top seed Illinois, boosts the Hooisers from the first team OUT of the field to an 11 seed and one of the Last 4 Byes. Barring absolute mayhem the final two days, Indiana should hear its name called tomorrow
After re-running the numbers (and with helpful losses from Oklahoma, Miami and Wyoming), Notre Dame climbs back from Last 4 In to an 11 seed and a Last 4 Bye. Notre Dame would be the first 2 seed in the ACC Tournament to miss the NCAAs since 1976, but I think they will just barely avoid this ignominious distinction
Texas A&M’s wild run through the SEC Tournament finally has them projected into my field as the fourth to last team in the field. They might be able to withstand a loss to Arkansas, but they will need no bid thieves to develop. A win would be better for the Aggies
Oklahoma and Miami each got a big win in their conference tournament this week to help themselves, but their runs came to an end last night and both find themselves in the Last 4 In, a very precarious spot to be on the day before Selection Sunday with no more games to play
It finally happened. Wake Forest has slid out of the field thanks to wins by Texas A&M and Indiana. The Demon Deacons look to be in bad shape now as my first team out of the field
Notably, Virginia Tech STILL finds themselves out of my projection as the second team out because Indiana and Texas A&M have countered every big Hokie win this week with a big win of their own. I think it’s AQ or bust now for Virginia Tech
VCU’s upset loss to rival Richmond does knock them out of my projected field now. A win against the Spiders likely would have clinched a spot for the Rams, but now they will head to the NIT, barring a miracle
It does appear the dream of a two-bid Conference USA is dead. North Texas’ loss to Louisiana Tech in the semifinals yesterday was just too bad a loss to bear in conjunction with their loss to UTEP at the end of the regular season. The Mean Green are my third team out of the field. Could the committee surprise us? It’s possible, but I highly doubt it
Dayton still sits in the Next 4 Out with just two possible games to go, and a second win would provide them the AQ. Is a win against Richmond enough to move them in to the field tomorrow? I doubt it. The Flyers really could have used a matchup with VCU today, but now it looks like Dayton will require the A10’s AQ spot
Rutgers is off my board below the Next 4 Out after a one-and-done exit from the Big Ten Tournament. I am fully ready to be wrong on this one if the committee focuses on their wins, but a team with a NET ranking that low has never made the NCAA Tournament. Plus they have some awful losses and a middling record
Seed List
Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
Kentucky, Auburn, Tennessee, Villanova
Purdue, Duke, Texas Tech, Houston
UCLA, Wisconsin, Illinois, Arkansas
Providence, Iowa, St. Mary’s, Murray State
Connecticut, North Carolina, Texas, Colorado State
LSU, Southern California, Michigan State, San Diego State
Alabama, Boise State, TCU, Ohio State
Seton Hall, Davidson, Iowa State, Loyola Chicago
San Francisco, SMU, Memphis, Creighton
Indiana, Michigan, Notre Dame, Wyoming
Texas A&M*, Marquette*, Miami FL*, Oklahoma*, South Dakota State, Chattanooga
UAB, Vermont, New Mexico State, Princeton
Longwood, Montana State, Kent State, Norfolk State
Long Beach State, Delaware, Saint Peter’s, Jacksonville State
Georgia State, Colgate, Bryant, Wright State, Alcorn State, Southeastern Louisiana
*Last 4 In
First 4 OUT: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, North Texas, VCU
Next 4 Out: BYU, Xavier, Dayton, Florida
NIT Seed List
Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, North Texas, VCU
BYU, Xavier, Dayton, Florida
Belmont, Colorado, Rutgers, Saint Louis
St. Bonaventure, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Virginia
Iona, Toledo, Santa Clara, Vanderbilt
Drake, Towson, Oregon, Missouri State
St. John’s, Richmond, Louisiana Tech, UCF
Florida State, Northern Iowa, Texas State, Cleveland State
First 4 Out: Temple, Washington State, Grand Canyon, Stanford
The math: six 1-seeds in one-bid leagues are playing today. A loss would knock them into the NIT, further squeezing the bubble. Drake, Oregon, Missouri State, St. John’s, Richmond, Louisiana Tech, UCF and Florida State have to sweat these games. Richmond and Louisiana Tech are still playing basketball and are in very fluid situations. The Spiders need one win to secure an NIT spot (two wins puts them in the NCAA Tournament), while Louisiana Tech needs to lose and have as many 1-seeds in one-bid leagues to win to keep the Bulldogs in the NIT (obviously a win today sends them straight to the NCAA Tournament, which is their goal)