Final Four Best Bets
We have arrived. More than five months of college basketball has whittled more than 350 Division I teams down to four teams and is about to culminate in two national champions. The Men’s Final Four in Houston, Texas consists of Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, Miami (FL) and Connecticut; a tourney of chaos where no top 3 seed has survived, so it truly feels like anyone’s game. The Women’s Final Four in Dallas, Texas features more chalk with undefeated South Carolina joined by fellow #1 seed Virginia Tech, as well as two teams that played like #1 seeds most of the season in Iowa and LSU. It’s a busy weekend in the Lone Star State and it’s a busy last few days here on the Substack. Let’s have some fun, but let’s also make some money while we’re at it.
(Note: Family is in town so I’ve left the men’s section blank for a moment. If you still see this note when reading, be sure to check back before Saturday’s games and I assure you it will be updated by then)
Women’s Final Four
Yesterday’s Results: 3-0 (+2.7u)
Total Women’s Tournament Results: 15-13 (+1.52u)
Back in the green with a great final day in the Elite 8! Maryland did score enough to keep it within 15 points of South Carolina and cashed the over too. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech handled Ohio State’s press easily and cashed -2. Let’s end this tournament with a bang, but fair warning there are some “fun” bets in here that I’m not sure should have much of an expectation to hit.
#3 LSU -2 (-110) vs. #1 Virginia Tech: 1u
It’s been a great ride for Virginia Tech, a team that had high hopes last year before losing in a first round upset, but I think this is the end of the line for the Hokies. The main reason is I’ve long believed in this LSU team. Kim Mulkey has a proven track record of success and in just two seasons she has taken LSU back to the Final Four for the first time since 2008. The missing piece has been Maryland transfer Angel Reese. The question surrounding these Tigers all season has been the level of competition, but it seems LSU has proven doubters wrong in the tournament by beating Michigan, Utah and Miami (FL) on the way to the Final Four. LSU wins a close game, but has enough to cover -2.
#2 Iowa +12 (-110) vs. #1 South Carolina: 1u
Here comes another emotional hedge, hooray! South Carolina beat Maryland by 11 and the Hawkeyes are a better version of the Terrapins, so it stands to reason that even if South Carolina wins, it will be by single digits. It’s the Final Four, so pressure and the margin of error have reached a new level. Plus, when a team has a generational talent like Iowa has with Caitlin Clark, it’s hard to imagine them losing on the biggest stage in a blowout (though then again, South Carolina has Aliyah Boston so who knows). I was tempted to throw an extra unit on this spread and also add one unit to a +525 ML, but I don’t want to actually root against South Carolina, so I will settle for a hopeful close-ish win.
And now for some more “fun” bets. Since I believe in LSU and I won’t root against South Carolina, let’s throw LSU -2 and South Carolina ML into a parlay at +123 odds. Now let’s throw those two aforementioned spreads, as well as the LSU-Virginia Tech under and the Iowa-South Carolina over into a 9-point, 4-way teaser at +100 odds (that’s LSU +7, Iowa +21, LSU-VT u143 and Iowa-SC o141 for the mathematically uninclined). This gives me some protection from a Virginia Tech win, a definite possibility given the close spread. I also think LSU will want a lower scoring game (the normal total of 132 might still be in play, but again this gives more cushion). As for Iowa-South Carolina, I believe the game script will play out similarly to the Maryland-South Carolina game, which means lots of points (and I would be absolutely stunned, yet happy, if South Carolina managed to win by more than 21 points).
These last two are going to sound super strange and certainly have no numbers or hard evidence behind them, but I believe in symbolism and imagery. Let me explain: the other night I had a dream I was watching the South Carolina-Iowa Final Four game. In this dream, South Carolina was down three with just seconds left on the clock and Aliyah Boston at the free throw line. She hit the first and intentionally missed the second before someone secured the offensive rebound and scored to send the game to overtime. Most of overtime in this dream was a blur, but the final score was South Carolina 98, Iowa 95. With this “information” now at my disposal, I’m placing a bet on South Carolina to win by 3-6 points (+500), as well as an alternate total of o157.5 points (+200). Is this fate? Does such a thing exist? I don’t know and those queries are above my pay grade, but it sure would be fun if it does happen so let’s give it a shot. This is the last weekend to bet college basketball for more than six months after all.
Men’s Final Four
Yesterday’s Results: 0-1 (-1u)
Total Men’s Tournament Results: 24-36 (-9.88u)
In a way, I predicted Miami to get this far (by continuing to pick against them and joking about it), so of course Miami beats Texas to make the Final Four. At this point, I might as well pick them to be champion, but I’m not going that far (yet).
#5 San Diego State - #9 Florida Atlantic o131.5 (-110): 1u
I don’t love either spread in the Men’s Final Four and that is partially due to the chaotic nature. I don’t think anyone has a great read on this tournament; sure, Connecticut looks super strong, but I’m not willing to lay 5.5 points with them against Miami. So instead, I will pivot to the San Diego State-Florida Atlantic over. This is a much lower total than the Connecticut-Miami game, which doesn’t inherently mean anything (that game could easily be very high-scoring), but in a game with a higher spread, it does seem to indicate some extra blowout potential. Between the Aztecs and the Owls, I think there is potential for more scoring than 131 points and a close spread indicates Vegas believes this will be close. If it’s close, there will be free throws in the final minute and I believe that will push this over the total.
Women’s National Championship Game
Final Four Results:
Total Women’s Tournament Results:
Be sure to check this post before the national championship games for bets on those games (no need for a separate post for just two games) as well as final totals for both tournaments. This has been two great tournaments, so enjoy the final moments which hopefully match the excitement of earlier rounds.