Conference Profile of the Day: Big East
That’s right, we’re back with another look at a conference’s bubble outlook and we’re focusing on the Big East today. The conference has four locks for the tournament (Providence, Villanova, Connecticut, Seton Hall). Three teams have solid to great at-large chances while still not being locks for the field (Marquette, Creighton, Xavier). Seton Hall flirted with joining this list, but avoided the upset to Georgetown and is safely locked into the field. Let’s start with the Golden Eagles.
Marquette
Record: 19-11 (11-8 Big East)
NET: 37
KenPom: 41
BPI: 52
Sagarin: 42
KPI: 30
SOR: 36
WAB: 46
Quad 1: 5-7
Quad 2: 5-4
Quad 3: 4-0
Quad 4: 5-0
Record vs. “the field”: 7-8
Marquette is the definition of “should be in.” The Golden Eagles have a great record versus the field (plus a win against Xavier who is close enough as we’ll discuss shortly), five Quad 1 win and no bad losses. The only reason their is any doubt is the lackluster finish to the season, going 3-4 to end the regular season with losses to non-tournament teams Butler and DePaul. Most see Marquette in the single-digit 7 to 9 seed range. I’m a little more down on them, putting the Golden Eagles in as a 10 seed, but again they should have enough cushion to make the NCAA Tournament.
Marquette begins its Big East Tournament in the quarterfinals against Creighton.
How they make it:
Maybe they’re already in, so this is a moot point. But a victory over bubble team Creighton helps Marquette twofold by washing away some of the late-season struggles and keeping them above the Bluejays on the seed list. This would make the math impossible to keep Marquette out of the field; there wouldn’t be more than 48 or so teams capable of jumping above the Golden Eagles.
How they miss it:
As much chaos as possible with a blowout loss to Creighton on top of everything. Even then, they probably have a north of 50% chance to get in, but crazier things have happened I suppose.
Creighton
Record: 20-10 (12-7 Big East)
NET: 66
KenPom: 70
BPI: 82
Sagarin: 60
KPI: 37
SOR: 40
WAB: 44
OOC SOS: 203
Quad 1: 5-5
Quad 2: 4-4
Quad 3: 6-1
Quad 4: 5-0
Record vs. “the field”: 6-8
Marquette’s opponent in the Big East Quarterfinals is Creighton, and the Bluejays are about as bubbly as it gets. Opinions on Creighton are varied, with some bracketologist giving them the sanctuary of a 9 or 10 seed, while others give them a more harried position along the Last 4 In or Last 4 Byes. Four bracketologists on the Bracket Matrix even have the Bluejays out of the field.
While they do enjoy a significant amount of Quad 1 wins and wins against the field, they have a NET ranking that would be on the lower side of at-large bids over the last four years. Creighton also did no favors to themselves in the non-conference section of their schedule. Aside from a win against bubble team BYU, they didn’t do much, missing huge chances against Colorado State and Iowa State (and even suffering a Quad 3 loss to Arizona State). That left them with a out-of-conference strength of schedule south of 200. Historically, a number that low has been the deciding factor between the last couple of bubble teams getting left out instead of making it to Dayton.
How they make it:
Beat Marquette and hope for as few bid thieves as possible. A seventh win against the field might buy them enough cushion that the OOC SOS isn’t a talking point in the committee’s discussions. It would also likely boost their NET ranking and every little bit helps Creighton at this point. Going even deeper in the Big East Tournament makes a selection a no-brainer for the Bluejays.
How they miss it:
A loss to Marquette would make things very anxious in Omaha, Nebraska. They would be nervously watching the SEC, Big Ten and Atlantic 10 Tournaments hoping for other bubble teams to go out early. They’d hope that chalk holds in the Pac-12 and Mountain West Tournaments and no bids get stolen. Creighton might still have enough to get in with an early exit at Madison Square Garden, but it would be too close for comfort.
Xavier
Record: 18-13 (8-11 Big East)
NET: 40
KenPom: 56
BPI: 44
Sagarin: 41
KPI: 47
SOR: 60
WAB: 69
Quad 1: 5-9
Quad 2: 4-2
Quad 3: 4-2
Quad 4: 5-0
Record vs. “the field”: 6-9
Oh, Xavier. Poor, poor Xavier. At the start of February, the Musketeers were at the top of my personal “Should be in” bubble watch list. They were about to be a lock for the field after beating Butler at home. Since then, however, Xavier went 2-8 to end their season, culminating in a first round exit at the Big East Tournament to Quad 3 Butler. The only wins in the last month have been a strong victory over Connecticut and Quad 4 Georgetown; losses to non-tournament teams like DePaul, St. John’s (twice) and the aforementioned Butler have tanked their NCAA chances.
Going into the Big East Tournament game against Butler, the aggregate on the Bracket Matrix saw Xavier as the third to last team in the field. They still remain in more projections than not, but with no more opportunities to improve their stock (and with other teams still having that opportunity), things look dire for the Musketeers. For the record, I have them in my First 4 Out now, and I assume others will follow shortly. It will be hard to reconcile a SOR ranking of 60, a de facto 8-12 conference record and two Quad 3 losses.
How they make it:
Pray. That’s exactly what this Jesuit school has to do. Pray that there isn’t a single bid thief. Pray that other bubble teams suffer early exits in conference tournaments just like Xavier did. Pray that the selection committee focuses only on the NET ranking and the five Quad 1 wins, and not on all the other glaring flaws on this résumé. And all that praying may not be enough; it looks like it will take a miracle to save Xavier now.
How they miss it:
By doing exactly what they’ve done. Finishing 2-8 with four losses to non-tournament teams is just about the worst thing any bubble team can do for its profile. Already, other bubble teams are adding marquee wins and are staying alive in their conference tournaments for more good win opportunities; Indiana beating Michigan and Texas A&M beating Florida to start today is even more bad news for Xavier.