3/27 Best Bets
Two games in the women’s tournament tonight and then both tournaments will have the Final Four set. And it’s a big night for yours truly as I stress over the South Carolina-Maryland matchup. Winning some money can either be a cherry on top of a Final Four berth, or it can help offset some emotional distress. Will I be biased towards my team or will my natural, Gamecock fan pessimism win out? Also, what to make of two non-powers in Virgina Tech and Ohio State battling for a spot in the Final Four? Read on below to find out!
Women’s Elite 8
Yesterday’s Results: 0-1 (-1u)
Total Women’s Tournament Results: 12-13 (-1.18u)
Louisville gave Iowa a hell of game for a little more than a half, but in the end Caitlin Clark did Caitlin Clark things (40-point triple-double for those who didn’t watch). It’s hard to factor in the once in a generation talents of a player like Clark, but I’m not here to make excuses. Onto the next one!
#2 Maryland +15 (-110) vs. #1 South Carolina: 1u
South Carolina may be one of the greatest teams of all time, but, if anything, that has led Vegas to exaggerate the lines. The Gamecocks couldn’t cover either game against UCLA, including the 17.5 point spread in the Sweet 16. Maryland is better than UCLA, so even if this game is only two points closer than the Sweet 16, this will cover. Now, the Terrapins lost by 25 to this Gamecocks team in November, but Maryland didn’t have Diamond Miller in the lineup back then. I’m thinking this helps make a massive difference as she makes that high-powered offense go. I will also note this is a bit of an emotional hedge for me. If South Carolina loses, I win money; if they win in a blowout, then I celebrate a Final Four appearance (and best case, they win by 1-14 points)
#1 South Carolina - #2 Maryland o136.5 (-110): 1u
I will also place a unit on the over. Admittedly, I thought this total would be a few points lower due to the notoriety of South Carolina’s defense, but I’m still willing to take the plunge at 136.5. These teams combined for 137 points back in November and again, that was without Diamond Miller playing for Maryland. Even when accounting for some of the usual, lower scoring tournament games as pressure increases, I think Miller’s presence gives a solid boost. Also, if this game is somewhat close (within single-digits) late, the foul game may give us a few more key points.
#1 Virginia Tech -2 (-110) vs. #3 Ohio State: 1u
I’m now fully on the Virginia Tech bandwagon. My apologies to the Hokies for going against them in the Sweet 16, but I have loved this team all season (even into last season). Ohio State had perhaps the win of the tournament (although there is some serious competition for that distinction this year), but I wonder if there is an emotional letdown for the Buckeyes after ending Connecticut’s impressive 14-year Final Four streak (and 16-year Elite 8 run). Consider this: of the previous nine teams to beat UConn in the tournament during that Elite 8 streak, only two won their next game - 2006 Duke in the Final Four and 2018 Notre Dame in the national championship game (South Carolina beat UConn in the 2022 national championship game, so there was no next game for the Gamecocks to potentially lose). Most of these teams that did lose also lost badly, though I will point out the last two teams (2019 Notre Dame and 2021 Arizona) only lost by a point, which wouldn’t cover the -2 spread. However, I am going with the overall trend, especially when I do believe Virginia Tech to be the better team in general.
After tonight, we will be down to just six games in total across both tournaments. It’s the nitty gritty as every remaining team can truly believe in their championship dreams. It’s a magical time for basketball and I can’t wait to see how this concludes.