3/25 Best Bets
Depending on when you saw this piece, there were no explainers (if not, then ignore this point). I wasn’t sure I could get this done in time, but with fewer games this late in the tourney, you can churn out blurbs pretty fast. Rapid fire time!
Women’s Sweet 16
Yesterday’s Results: 0-3 (-3u)
Total Women’s Tournament Results: 9-10 (-0.88u)
We have unfortunately fallen into the red after a big swing on Mississippi didn’t pay off. However, I think there is lots of potential out there today to turn this back to the green.
#2 Maryland -5 (-110) vs. #3 Notre Dame: 1u
This is Notre Dame’s first big test since Olivia Miles got injured. Mississippi State was a solid foe in the Round of 32, but they were still just an 11 seed and that game was in South Bend. I fear the Fighting Irish will struggle to keep up with Maryland’s offense on a neutral court. Terps roll into the Elite 8.
#4 UCLA +17.5 (-110) vs. #1 South Carolina: 1u
I mentioned a few days ago that one of the most glaringly (is that a word?) wrong spreads of the season was when South Carolina was giving 24.5 points to UCLA back in November. The Gamecocks won that game by just 10, which was right in line with my pre-game expectations. Now they play in a rematch, but in Greenville rather than Columbia (the crowd will still be 80+% Gamecock fans, but my point still stands). If South Carolina only beat UCLA by 10 earlier in the year at home, why would they win by 18 or more now in a pressure-packed “neutral” court game? I refuse to bet against Charisma Osbourne even if Vegas is giving UCLA a bit more respect now than they got five months ago.
#3 Ohio State +10 (-110) vs. #2 Connecticut: 1u
This has been the most upset-filled women’s tournament ever with two #1 seeds failing to reach the Sweet 16. UConn is extremely good, but have been vulnerable at times this season, losing two conference games for the first time in a decade. In a tournament filled with chaos, you’re telling me I can get a team just one seed line below UConn while still getting double-digit points? Sign me up for that. And remember, Ohio State at one point was ranked #2 in the country. If they can channel some of that play, they may very well win outright, but I’ll take cushion-y 10 points.
#4 Tennessee PK (-115) vs. #1 Virginia Tech: 1u
When Vegas thinks a lower seeded team will win (or at least be tied in this situation), you listen. I want to believe in the Hokies, but now outside the comfort of Blacksburg, I wonder if last season’s early exit prevented this team from building tournament resolve.
I’m also throwing all four bets into a 5-point teaser at +225 odds (1u). This turns Maryland into a ML bet, bumps UCLA up to +22.5 (similar to the November spread), takes Ohio State to +15 and flips Tennessee to +5 which protects me to an extent from a close loss.
Men’s Elite 8
Yesterday’s Results: 4-5 (+0.52u)
Total Men’s Tournament Results: 23-35 (-9.78u)
A winning day! San Diego State’s outright win carried us. We were one or two points from winning the Princeton bet too, so this easily could’ve been even better. Miami continues to torture me (as I jokingly foresaw) which burned our otherwise spotless teaser to the ground. Let’s see if this winning day generates some momentum.
#4 Connecticut -2.5 (-110) vs. #3 Gonzaga: 1u
Connecticut is the most complete team left in the field. Given the way this tournament has gone, that fact doesn’t mean much, but I still like the Huskies. This was a #2 seed according to computers with a top 15 offense and defense. All credit to Gonzaga for making it this far and they certainly have more high-end experience than this Connecticut roster, but I think it’s UConn’s time.
Alright, that’s it for today. We’re quickly running out of games, but enjoy what has been the two best tournaments we’ve ever seen in my opinion.