3/24 Best Bets
A full day of Sweet 16 action gets started at 2:30 p.m. Let’s not waste any time and get right to it
Women’s Sweet 16
Yesterday’s Results: 1-2 (-1.04u)
Total Women’s Tournament Results: 9-7 (+2.12u)
We still have a winning tournament, although two straight slight losing days have eaten away at our profit. UNC did their part keeping Ohio State to a two point win, but we couldn’t get one of the other two bets to cross the finish line. Miami-Indiana was a defensive game and we were on pace for the under into the 4th quarter, but a couple huge 3-pointers from both sides in the final few minutes (and the foul game used to lengthen the match) buried us in the end. Admittedly, I didn’t really consider Miami’s upset potential and that blinded me. But no worries, today is the day to start turning this back towards our great Round of 64 success!
#8 Mississippi +2.5 (-110) vs. #5 Louisville: 2u
Stanford. Connecticut. Mississippi. Those are the three teams that came the closest to beating undefeated South Carolina this season. Stanford and Connecticut should come as no surprise, as they are power programs in the women’s game and earned top two seeds this year. However, Mississippi also nearly beat South Carolina in Oxford before falling short in overtime. To me, this was the sign Mississippi was much better than their seed indicated. The Rebels used the same tough, defensive-minded gameplan that got the Gamecocks in the weeds to take down the #1 seed in their region, Stanford (on the Cardinal’s home floor mind you!). Before I forget to mention it, Louisville is also a very good team. Hailey Van Lith is a true star in the sport and a fiesty player on the court. The Cardinals have Final Four experience from last season and yes, they looked great in dispatching Texas with ease on the road. However, now they are the favorite, which means all it takes is one off shooting night to dispel you from the tournament. Plus, Louisville will likely miss some key departures from last year’s Final Four team, such as Emily Engstler, at some point (after all, that’s partially why they are only a #5 seed this year and not a #1 seed). I think Vegas is overreacting a tad to Louisville’s dominating win over Texas and this game should be closer to a pick ‘em line, so I’ll gladly take 2.5 points with the Rebels. And I’ll throw a unit on +125 ML as well.
Men’s Sweet 16
Yesterday’s Results: 0-3 (-3u)
Total Men’s Tournament Results: 19-30 (-10.3u)
Sigh. You might look at my record in this tournament and choose to fade me from here on (and I wouldn’t necessarily blame you), but again I feel like I was agonizingly close. We basically bet on two coin flip games last night and lost them both. Michigan State took the game to overtime (and even had a lead at one point), and UCLA dominated the first half and had a one point lead with under 10 seconds to play. If Gonzaga doesn’t hit a 3-pointer from the logo, they have to foul and UCLA likely wins by more than one point, cashing the bet. Super frustrating to say the least, but my confidence is not shaken. I already was salivating about the values today before yesterday’s disappointment, so this is a great opportunity while not chasing imaginary value.
#5 San Diego State +7.5 (-110) vs. #1 Alabama: 2u
Okay, this one might be chasing to a degree (and my bias against Alabama is likely contributing to it), but I do like the upside of San Diego State, a team who wants to slow the game down and muck things up. This is a great recipe for pulling upsets, but they will have to establish their tempo and not allow Alabama to establish their faster-paced tempo. I also don’t trust Alabama in the tournament, as the last two years numerous people were calling for the Crimson Tide to make the Final Four (or even win it all) and they haven’t made it past the Sweet 16. This team is almost certainly better than those teams, but I like the Aztecs’ chances to frustrate Alabama a bit. Give me the +280 ML as well (1u).
#1 Houston -7.5 (-110) vs. #5 Miami: 1u
Miami has proven me wrong at every turn, so I might as well triple down at this point (see you in the Elite 8, Hurricanes). I still think Houston is the favorite to win the national title. Also, setting everything else aside, I think Houston is in a safer matchup than Alabama, yet they are both giving 7.5 points. This inherently gives Houston a tad more value in my eyes (or on the flip side, it gives San Diego State more value, but I already talked about them).
#15 Princeton +10 (-110) vs. #6 Creighton: 2u
This line honestly shocked me. I figured after two very impressive wins where nobody gave them a chance, Princeton would be getting maybe 6-7 points in this matchup, but they get a full 10! We’ve seen a #15 seed in the Elite 8 just last season, so Pandora’s Box is wide-open. And no offense to St. Peter’s, but I think this Princeton team is better. Obviously, it’s an apples to oranges comparison because matchups are what truly matter, but I still love the Tigers’ matchup with the Bluejays. Creighton isn’t a very good team on the offensive glass (much like Missouri), which Princeton can take advantage of. Princeton will most likely have to make threes the way the did against Missouri (although they shot poorly and still beat Arizona), but getting double digit points is great value. If Creighton goes cold offensively, they are very likely to lose, so on the chance that happens, I’ll grab a unit of Princeton ML +360 too.
#2 Texas -4 (-110) vs. #3 Xavier: 1u
I think Texas is getting overlooked in this tournament. After a chaotic first weekend, I think they have a much better chance to win the whole thing than many are giving them (they’d have to likely get past Houston if they win, but that’s for a different time). Similarly, I don’t think Xavier is very good, despite being in the Sweet 16. They were a Kennesaw State collapse away from losing in the Round of 64, and (no offense to Pittsburgh) they played a weak #11 seed in the Round of 32. Personally, I think Texas wins this game by closer to 10 points and should have been given odds similar to Houston and Alabama.
And finally I’m throwing all four of these bets into a four-point teaser at +300 (so San Diego State +11.5, Houston -3.5, Princeton +14 and Texas pick ‘em) for a bit of fun. The way I see it, this insulates me on the two underdogs a bit - they can lose by 10 in a “blowout” and I’m still okay. If Miami gives Houston a great game and the foul game gets played, Houston can likely still win by 4 (it also protects a bit from a horrendous backdoor cover). And it turns Texas into a ML pick and I strongly believe in the Longhorns. I considered a seven-point teaser at +150 odds, which would’ve turned Houston into a ML pick, given a little cushion on Texas in case they lose and fully protected San Diego State and Princeton from blowouts, but I believe in these teams, so why dilute my winnings potential?
So there you have it, a bet on all four men’s games today because I truly believe in them. That being said, this same kind of feeling on the men’s side applies to the women’s side tomorrow so look out for a full dive into the final day of the Sweet 16