3/23 Best Bets
The field is narrowing as we begin the Sweet 16, which means fewer games to win money, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing out there. Today is a smaller day, but get ready for tomorrow where I’m loving the possibilities.
Men’s Sweet 16
Yesterday’s Results: 4-5 (-0.64u)
Total Men’s Tournament Results: 19-27 (-7.3u)
Nearly a winning day to end the Men’s Round of 32, hitting two plus-odds bets on Michigan State ML and our 3-way teaser. However, Miami’s baffling run continued, which helped cost us. If only I had gone with my usual strategy of betting two units on underdog spreads and one unit on underdog moneylines, Michigan State could’ve cleaned up nicely, but alas.
#7 Michigan State -1 (-110) vs. #3 Kansas State: 1u
Vegas favoring the seventh seed in a Sweet 16 game is fairly notable, but this is essentially a ML bet, and I have loved the Spartans as a sleeper pick to reach the Final Four ever since the bracket was unveiled. I’m not going to stop backing them now in this quasi-ML bet, especially when Kansas State’s inexperience and turnover issues concern me.
#2 UCLA -1 (-110) vs. #3 Gonzaga: 1u
Maybe what it will finally take for Gonzaga to break through is this wide-open field now facing them. However, watching the Bulldogs this season, you can tell there is just something off about them. In general, the defense has waned a bit this season. They could turn up the intensity as the games get more important, but this is a very strong UCLA team in front of them. On a list of ten pre-tournament stats that signify champions, UCLA was the only team in the field that checked at least nine of the ten boxes (and the one they didn’t check, 3PT% above 35%, sits just below the necessary threshold after a bad showing in the Pac-12 Tournament Championship Game).
And because I believe in my bracket (it’s mostly busted outside of these two teams) and these are both ML bets if you squint a little, I’m also throwing a unit on a +264 parlay of Michigan State -1 and UCLA -1. Like I said earlier, tomorrow is a big slate (a bet on all four men’s games?) with the women’s Sweet 16 starting, so be on the lookout for a significantly longer edition of Best Bets tomorrow, but until then enjoy the start of the second weekend of March Madness.