3/20 Best Bets
A small day of games in front of us, as just the eight Women’s Round of 32 games are left to be played from the first weekend of tournament action. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t room for value or chaos. Will another top seed follow Stanford and bow out early? Read on to find out!
Women’s Round of 32
Yesterday’s Results: 2-3 (-1.2u)
Total Women’s Tournament Results: 8-5 (+3.16u)
Our first losing day of the women’s field, but it wasn’t catastrophic by any means. Georgia did frustrate Iowa and had the two seed on the ropes in the 4th quarter before losing (but covering), and Princeton kept it close with Utah the whole way. Meanwhile, two of the three losing bets were by 4 points each, so this could have gone the other way just as easily.
#6 North Carolina +5 (-105) vs. #3 Ohio State: 1u
I like the program Courtney Banghart has built at North Carolina and I think this spread should be a lot closer to two or three points rather than the five it’s listed at currently. Ohio State was red-hot to start the season, climbing as high as #2 in the polls, but had an up-and-down finish to the season. Yes, they did reach the Big Ten Championship Game, which helped propel them to a #3 seed, but again, I don’t think they are this much better than UNC.
#12 Florida Gulf Coast +6.5 (-110) vs. #4 Villanova: 1u
Most of the things I said the other day about Villanova being a tad vulnerable and potentially failing to reach the Sweet 16 still apply, but this time they face a much stronger team in FGCU. The Eagles got gypped with a #12 seed because this team should have been closer to the #9 or #10 seed that South Dakota State and Princeton received. FGCU made a good #5 Washington State pay for this unfortunate error and now they may do the same to Villanova. I’d like this number more if it was closer to the magic 9 points I kept circling yesterday, but this either means Vegas also doesn’t respect Villanova much or they are very high on FGCU (which is sucking some value out of the line).
#1 Indiana vs. #9 Miami FL under 134 (-110): 1u
Our first total of the women’s tournament because A) I like having an odd number of bets and B) I didn’t love any of the remaining spreads (though considered the Toledo-Tennessee game). Looking at the totals, there are few good options, but I do like this one. Indiana should cruise (as indicated by the -14.5 spread), so this could become something like a 73-53 game where walk-ons play the final couple minutes in front of the home crowd. If Miami does keep it close, it will have to be through their defense, which fueled a 17-point comeback in the first round against Oklahoma State. On top of all that is the injury concerns with Hoosiers star Mackenzie Holmes. She sat out the first round with knee soreness; I expect her to play with the competition level rising, but again if it’s a blowout, she likely sees limited minutes to protect her for future rounds. In the end, I see more ways this game goes under rather than over, so that’s the side I’ll take.
So there you have it. A small card, but we’ve been winning with small cards, so let’s keep it going. Enjoy the last day of NCAA Tournament action until Thursday!