3/19 Best Bets
Tournament action is heating up! The men will decide the Sweet 16 field and the women move on to the Round of 32. Can Fairleigh Dickinson make history and continue their storybook run? How much chaos will the Women’s tournament provide as the field narrows? All that and more will be answered in today’s edition of Best Bets, so without further ado let’s jump in.
Men’s Round of 32
Yesterday’s Results: 5-8 (-2.96u)
Total Men’s Tournament Results: 15-22 (-6.66u)
We took a swing and a miss on an underdog-heavy slate. But honestly, the handicapping was pretty solid if I have to say so myself. Arkansas won outright and Northwestern brought home a winning bet. Auburn led by 10 at halftime, but played the worst second-half offensive performance I’ve ever seen and didn’t come close to winning, let alone covering +5. Maryland also led for chunks of the first half and had things within reach at halftime, but couldn’t get stops in the second half and they too fell apart (as for Duke, clearly Tennessee isn’t as hampered by injuries as I thought and are still playing like the top 10 team computers think they are). If Auburn covers, we have a winning day - and if they don’t blow a double-digit halftime lead, we have a very nice day. But such is life for a sports bettor and I won’t let it deter me.
#11 Pittsburgh +5 (-110) vs. #3 Xavier: 2u
Xavier’s performance against Kennesaw State did not alleviate my concerns about the Musketeers. They were outrebounded by the inferior Owls and were pretty sloppy with the ball. They got bailed out moreso because of Kennesaw State’s collapse (turnovers and limited three-point attempts) than anything Xavier did. Pitt will shoot the necessary amount of threes to give them a chance at an upset - almost 50% of their shot attempts against Iowa State were from deep. Now I get Pitt’s performance in the Round of 64 wasn’t exactly magical or anything - 15 turnovers and 34% from the floor should lose games most of the time - but I don’t think Pitt will shoot as poorly a second time around and this is more a bet against Xavier. It frightens me, but I’m also going to throw a unit on Pitt ML +175
#7 Michigan State ML (+130) vs. #2 Marquette: 1u
Call this intuition more than anything. I’ve believed in the Spartans since the bracket was unveiled on Selection Sunday and I considered them one of the better sleeper candidates to reach the Final Four in the whole field. Some of that had to do with the weakness of the region in which they were placed and that includes the weakness of Marquette. I’ve mentioned on this Substack how Marquette is the weakest #2 seed in the field; Vermont wasn’t able to challenge them adequately but I think Michigan State is a whole different ballgame. The Golden Eagles likely won’t shoot 50% from three-point land (and 51% overall) again, and they couldn’t even garner much of a rebounding advantage against the outmatched Catamounts. Frankly, there isn’t too much value in the lines (I’d be much more comfortable with +165 or so and a +5 spread), but I believe in my bracket, even if it’s already busted.
#16 Fairleigh Dickinson +15.5 (-110) vs. #9 Florida Atlantic: 2u
Welcome to the Madness, FDU. I’m not going to lie to you, I don’t have any numbers to back this up. I have no trends because only one other 16 seed has ever made it to the Round of 32. I have nothing but pure vibes and I’m choosing to embrace the chaos rather than fight it. Look, Florida Atlantic is a great team - top 25 in KenPom. But Purdue was better than FAU in KenPom and that didn’t mean anything. And the Owls don’t have a Zach Edey-type player on the roster. All I’m saying is giving almost 16 points sounds like a ton after what FDU has already shown themselves to be capable of, and it’s not like Florida Atlantic is another power program used to being in the tournament a ton. Now they have the pressure of being the heavy favorite rather than an underdog. If a #15 seed like Princeton can make the Sweet 16, why can’t a #16 seed? You know what, I’ve talked myself into FDU ML +725 (1u). Let’s get wild
#4 Indiana -2 (-110) vs. #5 Miami FL: 1u
I still don’t believe in Miami. All the reasons I gave the other day still apply (and they were a bit lucky to get past Drake at all). I know I bet against Indiana the other day, but I have liked this team all along - I just thought Kent State was a really tough matchup for them. Not much else to say on this one; I think the Hoosiers roll to be honest.
#7 Michigan State +8.5, #6 Creighton +7, #6 TCU +10.5 3-way teaser (+125): 1u
Let’s have a little fun to end this segment. I prefer to have an odd number of bets on the card and needed one more, but didn’t truly love anything else out there so I threw three of them I liked into a 6-point teaser. All the things I said about Michigan State earlier are still true, but now I get them at a more advantageous line without all the value having been sucked out. As for Creighton, I like their chances to beat Baylor, but again there was no value on them at +1 or -105 ML, so +7 is a good compromise. This will be a fascinating contrast of styles as each team’s strengths and weaknesses go against each other (example: Creighton ranks 269th in offensive rebounding, but Baylor ranks 300th in defensive rebounding). I’m not sure who will win, but I’d rather have Creighton’s offense against the Baylor defense than the other way around. Finally, Gonzaga is another high seed with a suspect defense and from watching them this season, they are certainly a step behind previous versions of the Bulldogs. That might still be good enough for a deep run in this chaotic, wide-open field, but I also really like this TCU team who is a #6 partially because of the team’s struggles for a month without Mike Miles Jr. If he had been healthy the whole time, this could’ve easily been a top 4 seeded Horned Frogs squad. Miles appeared to tweak an ankle or knee in the Round of 64 before halftime, but still scored 10 points in the second half and made other key plays to help TCU advance. Being able to push this spread into double figures on the tease makes me feel particularly confident about this leg, so let’s hope the other two legs hold up
Women’s Round of 32
Yesterday’s Results: 2-1 (+0.8u)
Total Women’s Tournament Results: 6-2 (+4.36u)
Another winning day on the women’s side! Tennessee and UCLA covered with ease thanks to big second halves. Maddy Siegrist did Maddy Siegrist things like I was afraid she might and Villanova kept Cleveland State at bay despite a very late run that almost secured a back-door cover. But hey, two out of three ain’t bad! (and I’m not even going to count a late-moving Baylor +1.5 bet I discovered after publication that also cashed) If you thought three games yesterday was a bit cowardly, well don’t worry, I’ve got a more ambitious five game slate cooked up for today and I’m loving what’s out there, so let’s get to it.
#7 Arizona +9 (-110) vs. #2 Maryland: 1u
Don’t let Arizona’s #7 seed fool you: this was a team in the conversation to host as a top 4 seed until a late season slide knocked them down to the 7 line. This team is still mightly talented, however, led by star Cate Reese. Reese was a significant contributor on the 2021 Wildcats squad that made the national championship game. They won’t be intimidated by the Terrapins on the road. Maryland is known for their prolific offense, but in March a cold shooting night can doom a favorite that relies on outside shooting. I’m banking on Arizona’s remnants of championship experience and a cold(er) shooting day from Maryland to keep this within single digits and bring this bet home.
#6 Michigan +9 (-110) vs. #3 LSU: 1u
I’ve been saying since the offseason that Angel Reese was the missing piece for LSU in their pursuit of a Final Four. That may still be true, but this is a business decision. LSU giving 9 points to a good team (one that was in line to host until the last week or so of the season) is way too many. LSU’s very weak schedule has been criticized all season for perhaps covering up deficiencies in the team’s talent level. Their one true marquee game of the season, against South Carolina, resulted in a blowout that was never competitive. Against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals, LSU blew a large lead and lost the game outright. Plust, they failed to cover in the first round against Hawai’i (though, admittedly it was a very large number). This Michigan team is roughly as good as the aforementioned Tennessee team LSU couldn’t even beat. Personally, I still think LSU wins and has a good shot to make the Final Four, but again, 9 points is too many given this team’s performance against good teams this season.
#10 Georgia +12 (-110) vs. #2 Iowa: 1u
This may be the bet with the best value of the day. No disrespect to Iowa, a team with lethal scoring capabilities and the likely national player of the year in Caitlin Clark, but I think Vegas (and the public) gives too much credit to the best teams in women’s basketball and that’s a compliment. There are lot of good teams in this sport and the tax bettors have to pay when betting on teams like Iowa, South Carolina or Connecticut has been consistently too high and out of line this year. Georgia is a scrappy team that rebounds with the best of them while generating steals - Georgia took 8 more shots than #1 South Carolina in a loss from early January (yes, Georgia lost that game by 17, but think of the potential!) Let’s hope the Bulldogs annoy and frustrate the Hawkeyes, keeping this margin within 10 points.
#9 South Dakota State +9 (-110) vs. #1 Virginia Tech: 1u
Virginia Tech is looking for the program’s second ever Sweet 16 appearance and first since 1999. The program has quickly become a power under coach Kenny Brooks and back-to-back ACC Player of the Year Elizabeth Kitley. However, they may have risen too quickly, the equivalent of a team peaking too early in the season. Top 4 seeds who fail to make the Sweet 16 (despite their home court advantage) tend to be newcomers to the scene who haven’t established consistent, national success yet - though notably this wasn’t the case with #2 seeds Iowa and Baylor losing last year. The Hokies are favored to advance for a reason, but the Jackrabbits are no slouch. They have built themselves into one of the top mid-major programs in the country and won the WNIT last season, bringing plenty of tournament experience into this game. I like South Dakota State to keep this within single-digits against a Virginia Tech team that struggled a bit to establish offense against the 16 seed Chattanooga.
#10 Princeton +10 (-110) vs. #2 Utah: 1u
Is anybody capable of taking down the mighty basketball empire from Princeton, NJ? I kid, of course, but both the men’s women’s teams remain alive despite being double-digit seeds. The men’s team has been making headlines, but the women’s team has been extremely good all season and would’ve had a case for an at-large bid if they hadn’t won the Ivy League Tournament. Princeton was one point away from advancing to the Sweet 16 last season as an #11 seed, so they are no strangers to competing with elite teams in a hostile environment. Utah is another program that isn’t used to the bright lights of the NCAA Tournament (second tournament in 12 seasons and first time being higher than a #7 seed since 2006) and may feel some pressure to deliver a Sweet 16 berth in front of the home crowd. The Utes, led by Pac-12 Player of the Year Alissa Pili, are probably better than the Tigers, but are they 10 points better? I’m not so sure. Go shock the world again, Princeton.
It’s a day of underdogs in the women’s tournament; parity has increased in recent years, leading to more upsets, but we haven’t seen too many yet and I think that’s bound to change. Getting 9-12 points on all of these spreads is just the cushion and value I’m looking for, so let’s keep this women’s hot streak going!