3/18 Best Bets
Well, I thought there would be more chaos coming yesterday, and a #16 seed beating a #1 seed certainly counts as chaos! Honestly, there weren’t too many other upsets, but that one makes up for it. The men’s tourney moves into the Round of 32, while the women wrap up the Round of 64, so there is plenty left to fill the card for today.
Men’s Round of 32
Yesterday’s Results: 4-9 (-5.38u)
Total Men’s Tournament Results: 10-14 (-3.7u)
We started strong with Michigan State easily covering (though came 20 seconds short of cashing the 1H under) and Kennesaw State nearly beat Xavier while covering the +12.5, but after that it was rough. Drake went cold over the final 5 minutes, NC State had chances but fell late to Creighton and Kent State was never too competitive versus Indiana as Sincere Carry had one of his worst games of the year. Arizona State did help us out late in the night, but a last-second win for TCU cost us the extra ML boost, which would have helped tremendously.
The betting markets are squeezing a lot of value out there with the influx of advanced metrics at their disposals, but I still think we can find something good today to claw back those losses.
#5 Duke -3.5 (-110) vs. #4 Tennessee: 1u
Duke looked very good against Oral Roberts, a trendy upset pick in the first round. I had my doubts about ORU, so the performance doesn’t shock me. Tennessee will be a much tougher task for the Blue Devils; however, the injuries Tennessee has suffered late in the year (especially to Zakai Zeigler) led to a swoon and I don’t have much faith in Tennessee to advance. Tennessee is one of those programs that seem to be snakebit in March, having failed to advance past the Sweet Sixteen under Rick Barnes. After seeing what happened to Purdue in recent tournaments, I think there is something to this trend of good-to-great programs struggling in the tournament. Advantage Duke in this regard (though it is Jon Scheyer’s first tournament as a head coach), so give me the Blue Devils to win more than four points.
#8 Arkansas +3.5 (-110) vs. #1 Kansas, #9 Auburn +5 (-110) vs. #1 Houston, #7 Northwestern +7.5 (-110) vs. #2 UCLA and #8 Maryland +8.5 (-110) vs. #1 Alabama: 2u each
I’m lumping all four of these upset potential games together because of how I’m approaching betting this Round of 32 tomorrow. I’m confident there will be another upset or two and I don’t want to miss out on which upset(s) occur, so I’m throwing 2u on each of these because I can afford to do so (but know your own limits when gambling and don’t exceed them!)
As for the games themselves, Arkansas is the shortest underdog of the bunch likely because Vegas knows A) Kansas is the weakest #1 seed in the field this year and B) Arkansas has a top 10 talented roster. I’m still willing to take a shot on the Hogs however. Conventionally speaking, Houston is the safest team in the country for avoiding upsets - they garner second chances on the glass and have a ferocious defense that smothers opposing offenses. However, this is far from a conventional situation. The Cougars are the latest top team to be battling key injuries right now, and Houston is not the same team without a healthy Marcus Sasser. Also, the potential for this game against Auburn to become a de facto home game in Birmingham will throw a lot of curveballs at Houston. Auburn is not that good of a team this year in my opinion (disclaimer: I am a pessimistic Auburn fan), but have the right pieces in play - rebounding ability up front with Johni Broome and athletic guards like Wendell Green Jr. - to give Houston hell. UCLA and Alabama are giving the most points, which is immediately intriguing, but they too are also dealing with injuries and should face much tougher tasks in the Round of 32
With this approach, I also want to take a risk on the moneyline for each underdog, so hitting just one or two will make this worth it. 1u each on Arkansas ML (+140), Auburn ML (+200), Northwestern ML (+275) and Maryland ML (+330)
Women’s Round of 64
Yesterday’s Results: 4-1 (+3.56u)
Total Women’s Tournament Results: 4-1 (+3.56u)
The women’s tournament made me sweat until the very last second of action, but we secured a nice winning day thanks to Princeton’s late, dramatic win over NC State (which also erased the losses from the men’s side, but I’ll be keeping those separated in the bookkeeping). Another big day of action and I think there is more winning to be had, so let’s get to it!
#4 Tennessee -24.5 (-110) vs. #13 Saint Louis: 1u
I’m taking another heavy favorite today after Virginia Tech (barely) cashed -24.5 yesterday. Home court advantage is extremely important in these NCAA Tournament games and the Volunteers have started to build back towards the heyday of the Pat Summitt era. On the other end of the floor is a Saint Louis team that might be happy just to be dancing after taking out two very good teams in the Atlantic 10 Tournament (which cost Massachusetts and Rhode Island a spot in the field). The Billikens are due for more of a down performance; they didn’t play like much of a tournament team during the regular season and I’m betting on that being the version of Saint Louis that shows up in Knoxville.
#13 Cleveland State +12 (-110) vs. #4 Villanova: 1u
13-4 upsets are very rare in the women’s tournament because of the home court advantage, but the teams that do get upset are usually newcomers pressured to play well in front of the home fans. This is Villanova’s first time hosting in 20 years and nobody on this staff has any connection to that team. Maddy Siegrist is an absolute baller capable of dropping 50 points and blowing this bet away, but Cleveland State is no slouch out of an underrated Horizon League. I’m not saying Villanova will lose, but I am counting on the Wildcats feeling some pressure to play well in front of a home crowd who’s been waiting for this moment for two decades, and the Vikings to keep this within single-digits.
#4 UCLA -14.5 (-110) vs. #13 Sacramento State: 1u
I will not bet against Charisma Osborne. This has been somewhat of a mantra for me this season, ever since I noticed the Bruins were 20+ point underdogs to undefeated South Carolina back in November - I thought the fair line would’ve been somewhere in the 10-12 point ballpark. Vegas has undervaulued UCLA all season and I think they’re doing so again here. At home, I expect a 20+ point win against a team that’s not among the best mid-majors in the field.
A small card on the women’s side, but it’s wiser to not chase if the value isn’t there. I considered Iowa State -10 and Portland +8, but I believe in these three picks. Let’s keep this hot streak going and enjoy a great weekend of basketball