3/17 Best Bets
Day 1 of the 2023 NCAA Tournament got off to a wild start with outright wins by underdogs Furman and Princeton. Day 2 promises to be even wilder with just three double-digit seeds winning on Thursday (history says 3-4 more will win before the Round of 64 ends); plus, the women’s tournament also gets underway to add to the slate of games to bet. How much more chaos is in store as we whittle down to the Round of 32? Navigate the choppy betting waters with a look at my best bets for both tournaments!
Men’s Round of 64
Thursday’s post didn’t get out in time (thanks to oversleeping past my alarm), but for transparency’s sake here was my card yesterday:
2u on #13 Furman +5.5 (-110) vs. #4 Virginia ✅
1u on #13 Furman ML (+215) vs. #4 Virginia ✅
1u on #10 Utah State -1.5 (-110) vs. #7 Missouri ❌
1u on #16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +25 (-110) vs. #1 Alabama ✅
2u on #12 Charleston +5.5 (-110) vs. #5 San Diego State ❌
1u on #12 Charleston ML (+210) vs. #5 San Diego State ❌
1u on #8 Arkansas -2 (-110) vs. #9 Illinois ✅
1u on #10 Boise State ML (+110) vs. #7 Northwestern ❌
1u on #16 Northern Kentucky +18.5 (-110) vs. #1 Houston ✅
Yesterday’s Results: 6-5 (+1.68u)
Total Men’s Tournament Results: 6-5 (+1.68u)
Not too bad. Furman’s dramatic win buoyed me throughout the day. The two Mountain West teams were competitive until the final few minutes. Meanwhile, a brutal bad beat prevented Charleston from covering +5.5, which would have padded the winnings even more. With yesterday out of the way let’s get to today, where I’m confident we can keep this ship moving forward.
#7 Michigan State -2 (-110) vs. #10 Southern California: 1u
This boils down to a simple principle really and that’s air travel. Let me explain: these two teams are evenly matched, each within a few spots of one another in adjusted efficiency rankings. That explains the small number the Spartans are giving, but to quote a popular real estate phrase “location, location, location.” This game is being played in Columbus, Ohio - a relative home game for Michigan State compared to the thousands of miles and three time zones Southern Cal had to travel to play this game (which if you read my Cheat Sheet, you know why this is important). Throw on top of that a 12:15 p.m. tip, or a 9:15 a.m. tip for the Trojans’ bodies, and I think they will come out of the gate slow. Michigan State should win this with enough ease to cover the short number. Given the early tip time, I will also throw a unit on the 1H u63.5 and hope Southern Cal’s defense plays better than their offense might in a sluggish start.
#14 Kennesaw State +12.5 (-110) vs. #3 Xavier: 1u
This is moreso a bet against Xavier rather than a bet for Kennesaw State. No disrespect to the Owls - they are a wonderful story and have a balanced attack. However, the focus is on the weakness of Xavier. This is a team who turns the ball over a bit too much and has a weak defense. 12.5 points is just way too many points, implying Xavier is safer than Tennessee was yesteday against Louisiana. The Athletic’s Bracket Breakers model gave Louisiana just a 7% chance of winning, but gives Kennesaw State more than twice that, so I’ll gladly take two more points than what Louisiana got when they successfully covered yesterday. If you’re feeling particularly bold, you can nibble on Owls ML +550, but I don’t think they are quite good enough to win outright.
#11 North Carolina State +5 (-110) vs. #6 Creighton: 2u
With only three double-digit seeds winning yesterday, I’m expecting more chaos today. While that may mean the aforementioned Kennesaw State and Vermont may pull upsets, I’m more keen on North Carolina State’s matchup with Creighton. The Bluejays are another team overly reliant on jump shots for their offense and they don’t do much to generate extra possessions when the shots aren’t falling. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack check most of the boxes you look for out in underdogs - they force turnovers (while not turning it over themselves) and they gobble up rebounds. NC State had high expectations last year before injuries decimated the roster in the preseason. This year’s squad has plenty of talent, led by underrated guys like Terquavion Smith and D.J Burns Jr. I think the Wolfpack play above their seed line and get an outright win, so I’ll throw an additional unit on the +185 ML
#12 Drake ML (+110) vs. #5 Miami: 1u
If this line seems odd to you, you aren’t alone. It’s not often a #5 seed is such a narrow favorite, but it’s for good reason. Miami is the second-weakest #5 seed in the last 15 seasons in part because of a putrid defense ranking outside the top 140. On the other side, is a generically strong Drake team which ranks just a few spots behind the Hurricanes in overall efficiency. The Bulldogs may not excel in too many areas, instead opting for an all-around high level of play, but the Missouri Valley Conference has historically produced strong mid-majors who pulled upsets in the NCAA Tournament and I believe Drake is no different (plus I have no faith in Miami). Tune in and watch Tucker DeVries put on a show for Drake. If you are scared off of the moneyline, you can opt for Drake +2 at -110 odds instead, but scared money don’t make money.
#13 Kent State +4.5 (-110) vs. #4 Indiana: 2u
Another underdog I love is Kent State. They play the upset role to near perfection with a slow tempo to minimize possessions, while also forcing tons of turnovers. On the other side, Indiana is a solid, but unremarkable team, especially for a top 4 seed. They don’t excel at any one thing, which is a problem when there’s a target on your back as the favorite. The star to watch on Kent State is Sincere Carry and if you haven’t been watching him dice up the MAC, that is your loss. But no worries because this is the perfect time to jump on the bandwagon. Kent State also won’t be star-struck by the moment as they have played Houston and Gonzaga incredibly close this season. I think the Golden Flashes will frustrate the Hoosiers, much in the way Princeton seemed to disrupt Arizona, and will win outright, so give me the +165 ML as well.
#11 Arizona State +5.5 (-110) vs. #6 TCU: 2u
Finally, I like the makings of an Arizona State upset against TCU. As much as it pains me because I love this Horned Frogs team, this is March and chaos loves to throw a wrench into your bracket. Arizona State looked great in their First Four win over Nevada and there is a bit of history on the Sun Devils’ side - every year but one since the First Four was introduced, a winner in Dayton won a game in the Round of 64 as well. Safe to say, I don’t have too much confidence in Pittsburgh (nor Fairleigh Dickinson) to pull an upset, so that leaves me with Arizona State. However, there are far worse statistical profiles for pulling an upset than what the Sun Devils are working with. They turn you over at will and launch tons of threes - though they hit an atrocious 31.4% from deep during the season. However, if they can channel some of that shooting from Dayton (or perhaps their half-court heroics from the Arizona game), they could make life miserable for a TCU program still relatively new to the March stage. Let’s add a 1u sprinkle on ASU ML +195 as well.
I also like Connecticut -9 vs. Iona (top 5 team according to metrics should dominate plus possible distractions around Rick Pitino’s potential last game at Iona) and Vermont +10 vs. Marquette (Vermont’s efficient offense likely to take advantage of Marquette’s relatively weak defense and the Catamounts’ chameleon-like quality to adapt to more upset-minded play styles in the NCAA Tournament), but I couldn’t bring myself to bet on these games. I wrote up the blurbs, but the card is full enough as is and there are some better values out there in my mind.
Women’s Round of 64
#1 Virginia Tech -24.5 (-110) vs. #16 Chattanooga: 1u
Elizabeth Kitley and the Hokies are simply way better than Chattanooga. Parity has increased in the women’s game in recent seasons and there are some reasons to doubt the new kids on the block, but Virginia Tech should cruise playing at home. The Southern Conference on the women’s side isn’t nearly as strong as the men’s conference and Chattanooga was arguably not even the best team in that league.
#6 Creighton -2 (-110) vs. #11 Mississippi State: 1u
This is not the same Mississippi State team that dominated the nation and was led by Vic Schaefer. These Bulldogs lived life on the bubble all season and perhaps shouldn’t have received a bid because of how weak their non-conference scheduling was. Nonetheless, they are here now after winning a game in the First Four. However, the Bluejays are the more experienced group and even know how to win in other teams’ gyms during the tournament after last year’s run to the Elite 8 as a #10 seed. There are other upset opportunities out there I like better (such as UNLV +3.5 vs. Michigan), so I actually see some value in the favorite here laying an incredibly small number.
#10 Princeton +5.5 (-110) vs. #7 North Carolina State: 2u
Much like their men’s team counterpart, the Princeton Tigers’ women’s basketball team runs a tight ship, operating with an efficient offense (and that’s even after star Abby Meyers transferred to Maryland). The Tigers are one of the best mid-major programs in the country and they face a bit of a wounded duck in NC State. The Wolfpack had been a consistent top 10 team most of the past few years, but had a down year in a tough ACC after Elissa Cunane departed for the WNBA. They still have the talent to win this game, but giving 5.5 points to a good Princeton team is too much given where some of the other lines stand currently. There’s enough value to also throw 1u on Princeton ML at +195
There are a few more games that piqued my interest, including big underdogs Hawai’i (+32 vs. LSU) and Southern Utah (+21.5 vs. Notre Dame or even the u133), but I think these are more likely to hit. So let’s enjoy the ride and see how much money we bring home today!